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Let's Trade Options

Quoting The Fool
{quote}might regret that roll...
..probly will roll it back down for another 50c debit...wasn't looking for a 2σ move today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Will bite the bullet Wed morning & put it on or close the diag for near BE. Not counting on a bounce Wed morn pre-FOMC. Markets are ready to dump at the merest whiff of neg news, whatever the algos think that is this week - they are all on the same side and we could see a lot more blood - a hawkish Fed then a big NFP beat. You wait around for years to see these down moves, don't blow it Fool....
closed the near put diagonals, 25c loss...the lower ones remain, likely big losers; call diags remain, quite fotm, but they only cost 10c. Pretty much a fizzle as JPow reasserts the Fed put....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Pretty much a fizzle as JPow reasserts the Fed put....
market not buying what JPow is selling...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
LOOKING now at rolling down the calls, will do it Thurs if for cheap....starting to feel like an exercise in futility...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
LOOKING now at rolling down the calls, will do it Thurs if for cheap....starting to feel like an exercise in futility...
weekly spinner forming, always worst case for double diagonals. The calls netted 50c and the puts lost about 60c, all the small hedge trades were near total loss...all-in-all just a small losing week. Will be looking to sell some IC's...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Low-risk RUT combo, looking for bullish action for the week....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
Low-risk RUT combo, looking for bullish action for the week....
if anybody wants to run north, it'll be RUT. If it sits still or pulls back, that means my bear SPX calls are making money, moist likely. Surprised at how dead volume is these days. Low volume makes for some outsized moves, sometimes....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Gotta believe the Powell Put floats markets to new ath's....we're just a stone's throw away from that for the spoos. 5 straight green dailies, so what, we could see them forever. Why sell your stocks with the Fed backstopping the market? Looking for stairsteps up, 5250 next week. Sideways is the new down....
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what's not to love about the combo above? Risks <$300 to make over $8k, perfect finish could net > $12k....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Surprised at how dead volume is these days. Low volume makes for some outsized moves, sometimes....
SPY vol today 37MM, against avg 70MM, which is already declining. Shaping up to being a snoozefest Summer....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Inserted Video

In the btfd market, this weekly call combo all you need to know to get rich like macdaddy TF:

With the Friday ExMove for SPX at about 66, that puts SPX at about 5290 for Friday close. This will change off PPI tomorrow, though. So, I'll put this on after the print and I'm looking for a dip. Then looking for a tamed CPI Wed. Call combo just trying to catch any decent move north. $10 wide diagonal will usually go on for small credit or small debit. Add the 1-lot SPX (or 10-lot XSP) long call just past the or right on the long leg of the diagonal to mitigate the tail risk. Obviously, a down move will be a loser, but as shown, the trade risks <$200 to make nearly $6k. As shown, needs min $10k bp> If you go lower, you can also reduce the size of XSP (or SPY) for the insurance leg. For instance, could go 5-lot SPX with 5 lot XSP, etc etc.

Same trade plays well @ puts, but you have to go wider with the spread and, in short, is not as cost effective, but I'll show an example...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Going $15 wide on the put spread means a bigger tail risk and thus more debit for the insurance legs. You could simply move down the spread strikes so that the insurance would very moist likely not be needed, but the risk still there...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I can't touch this,,,,iv's in the May options over 600%
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
1-way bull market is a gift....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I always trade these AM/PM time spreads, especially when there's a good chance of a 00-pinner....5300 was the target here. I have never held these to see what I might get with residual calls Friday, too much overnight risk...Have a $5 tp set for this, maybe see that in the last hour today if I'm lucky...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
[quote=The Fool;14869703...Have a $5 tp set for this, maybe see that in the last hour today if I'm lucky... [/quote]out @ $2,70, a double+, about all she was giving as that pinned 5300....these don't pay nearly as well as Friday/Monday spreads, but they are < 1/2 the cost of those to put on.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
AI tulip mania taking hold and markets will swing around NVDA earnings this week. Not likely they can report anything but good news. Meanwhile, cracks in the consumer economy keep growing. We are due for some big red drops down, just need a shock of some kind to precipitate it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Brace for NVDA impact.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
Brace for NVDA impact.....
sell in May, go away, or ride the NVDA wave to new ath? spx gets a delayed reaction to the spooky fomc minutes, but it won't last, I'd bet...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
we'll see if the bears can squeeze some more air out the bubble Friday, but I'll be looking to btfd, for next week the combo shown my go-to, risk $800 to make up to $10k on a 20 lot....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I put on the diagonal above @ Friday, but without the hedge longs.....generally I put on trades like this to protect bear call verticals that are being threatened. If SPX pulls back, I'll make money....if SPX goes up into the profit zone of the diagonal, I'll be mitigating the loss from the bear calls.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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